Oil supply chains could take up to a year to recover even after shipping lanes normalise, according to a senior executive from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. The assessment, delivered at the Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in London, carries direct implications for Texas energy producers navigating the current market.
Philippe Khoury, executive vice president for sales and trading at Adnoc, said supply restoration is not going to resume like a flip of a switch. The comments came as Brent crude futures traded near $94 a barrel, with benchmarks having swung more than 5 percent in a single session earlier this week.
For Texas, the world’s largest oil-producing region after Russia and Saudi Arabia, the prolonged recovery timeline creates both opportunity and complexity. Higher sustained prices support drilling economics in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale, but supply chain bottlenecks — from tanker availability to insurance costs — continue to constrain logistics for Gulf Coast exporters.
Adnoc head Sultan Al Jaber previously estimated that global oil flows would take four months to return to 80 percent of typical levels when conditions normalise, with full capacity not expected until the first or second quarter of 2027. The International Energy Agency’s Toril Bosoni estimated the best-case scenario for reopening the Strait of Hormuz at eight months if an agreement were reached today.
Texas independent producers have responded by stockpiling equipment and hedging 2026 output at favourable prices. Pipeline operators in West Texas report that flows remain strong, though export volumes from Corpus Christi and Houston have softened slightly as charter rates for Middle East-bound tankers have risen sharply.
With the UAE now operating outside Opec quotas after its May 1 departure, the global supply picture is shifting. Texas producers are watching closely to see whether increased UAE output eventually offsets restricted flows, or whether a new equilibrium emerges at higher price floors.
Source: AGBI / Reuters | Texan Weekly
